Opportunity to cripple the Islamic Dictatorship

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by Unregistered, Aug 5, 2009.

  1. There are some more ideas in this news article.

    Iranian opposition plans new wave of resistance amid claims of torture

  2. Your posts about Raf surprised me, that's why I mentioned the reference to 'fox' that I've been hearing. My husband has been calling him that for as long as I can remember.

    It's not quite in the clever way you're implying. More like sneaky, playing along with both sides, and definitely not to be trusted. The Iranians I'm talking to don't trust him at all and don't like him one bit. I'm just relating the opinions of two long-time bazaris. They might well be in an opinion-slot of their own, along with their bazari friends. What I'm saying may not be representative of the majority bazar thinking. Can't say either way. Although we regularly talk to people in Iran - family, friends and business people - we definitely don't talk about what's going on there at the moment, for obvious reasons.

    Our visitor, who is still a bazari, was most interested in my explaining this thread, and certainly saw the logic. It's a conversation we will continue when they come back from a few days travel.

    I would like to add that commerce in Iran doesn't work exactly the same way it does in the west. For those who don't know... wholesale trade is conducted mostly by post-dated checks/cheques. Most businesses have what they call a 'safety box'. Checks/Cheques could be post-dated for a month or for a year or two. The business culture is also much more based on forming business friendships first. Way more than in the west.

    The one active bazari told me he has about US1.5M in post-dated checks/cheques sitting in his safety box, and this isn't at all unusual. Some are dated more than a year ahead, and amongst the others are a few he can never bank. A quaint expression that they use, especially when translated to English is... "they ate my money" - meaning the chek/cheque will always bounce. What they've been talking about for the last few years, is that more and more people have "eaten" their money. They know the economy is diving fast.

    Also remember that Iran isn't a cash-card society. Few people even have credit cards, unless they travel and have overseas bank accounts, although I think some IR banks do now issue them. But try to find ATMs all over Iran - forget it. People walk around with a ton more cash in their pockets than we're used to in the west. I almost never have any cash - I only use cash/debit or credit cards. My husband, on the other hand, feels totally bare without a wad of cash in his wallet.

    As far as I know, in Iran, US$s are negotiable currency in many places in Tehran - eg taxis and in the bazaar, but for the ordinary Iranian, to purchase everyday items, they trade mostly in Rials.

    Many of the more wealthy business people already have accounts overseas - eg in Dubai, USA or UK and other places. I suspect that many of them already know that their money does better work outside the country, or in investments like property, carpets, gold and so on. No good businessman will have a ton of money sitting around in a bank account in Rial unless it's their working/trading capital - eg paying wages, buying goods and paying for overheads. And of course, they have to remember what checks/cheques they have out and on what date (months and years in advance) they need to have money in the bank to cover them.

    So, think about who has substantial amounts of money in a bank accounts in Iran. I'm very happy to stand corrected, but you might well have to target the next rung down on the 'richness' ladder and this means targeting a whole lot more people, with not as much as you're expecting in savings.

    And what do they then do with their life-savings in some other currency that they have to hide under their beds, and does them little good in Iran?

    Also, just on population alone, I think the banks could easily cope with a run of money from just a small portion of people. And yes, I know they don't hold actual cash for the total of all accounts. But do we know how much cash they have access to?

    Could it be possible that the more people required to withdraw/exchange their money for this to work, the more easily the government will get wind of it, and immediately freeze withdrawals over a certain amount, let alone currency exchanges? Just playing devil's advocate for a moment.

    I'm hoping someone will help make this a little clearer for me. I'm sure I don't have all this completely straight.
  3. Ariss Member

    Strike tactics

    I am adding some thoughts to the 'strike' issues. As far as I know, general strikes did help to oust the Shah 30 years ago. But during the recent events, people have expressed their fears about loosing their job, unwilling to go on a general strike. Their fears are not unsubstantiated, as Iran has an alarmingly high level of unemployment.

    For those, who do not wish to go on a full strike, thus confronting the government openly, there is another path: the work-slowing strike. This means that people go to work as regularly every day and they do as if they were working regularly, but secretly they agree to work only at a reduced level, say 50%. So the output is drastically reduced. This kind of civil disobedience needs a high level of good coordination, but if done well, it creates a very difficult situation for employers. He may dismiss people en masse, but that would create a bad situation to the company, as the newcomers were possibly even slower as the current employees. He may also try to punish the workers, but it would not speed up production, for certain.

    The ease of organising such a strike lies in the fact: no one ever likes to work more than the great majority without additional pay, so if a large deal of workers start slowing their speed, that will spread like wildfire - hopefully.
  4. Hi Gist, thank you for your explanation re how many people in Iran carry, save money.

    I agree that, if withdrawals were wholesale and rapid, Sep would get wind of it and forbid withdrawals over a certain amount.

    I do, however, think Machi's idea is a good one. So is there a way you can nip and tuck Machi's idea into something that will work well with little risk of detection? I look forward to reading your response. Thank you. :)
  5. Machiavelli Member

    Actually, this is the aim. We want that to happen.
    If they are dumb enough to freeze withdrawals and currency exchanges, they lose one of their last bases of support.

    Then it's only the fanatics (Hojjatieh) against the rest of the world.

    I agree many people are needed. But the history of bank runs shows, that from a certain point on, nothing can contain the spreading further.
    In the end, 70 million people will participate. When financial survival is at stake, politics and other motivations don't count.
  6. Another thing, Gist, to add to what Machiavelli is saying:

    The regime has already bought stable foreign currency with their rials and invested in foreign banks. Their money is safe. I haven't checked the new threads this morning, but I think there is a new one on the Sal Oppenheim Bank. That's where the reg keeps a lot of its money. You might want to read on what has been happening there.

    As long as the people keep their money in rials, the people's money is not safe. With the astonishing inflation that AN has created in Iran -- what with his bribing other countries to develop Iranian oil/gas so that he can build a nuke and pay Hez, Ham, Sep, and the Baseachi Boys -- people will very soon end up with no money. And that spells humanitarian disaster.

    With the reg being so paranoid -- yes paranoid imho -- about foreign intervention, I fear getting humanitarian aid workers into Iran will be tricky. Some people have said that the Red Crescent might be able to pull it off and I hope this is true.

    Ultimately, however, the people would be wise to protect their money by putting it into stable foreign currency and stashing it in foreign banks. Sure Sep is going to find out and they wont like it. The question then is: is there any way to postpone detection so that fewer people end up with no money? Gist, do you have any thoughts on this? Thank you. I look forward to your response. :)
  7. Hi John. Having to listened to the Marina Nemat interview a coupla of times, I am not sure how much slower the teachers can go. :D

    She said that they are heavily indoctrinated by IRG and that the curricula are all IRG propaganda; like, Islamic calculus, Islamic history, Islamic physics, Islamic chemistry, and so on.

    But, yeah, the work slowdown sounds like an effective add-on and I would be interested to hear from people what areas are good for slowdown.
  8. "work slow-down"
    Is it the same as "work-to-rule" and if not do you think that "work-to-rule " would, well, work?
    Usually there are many rules and regulations and some contradict each other, so that if you follow scrupulously all of them the work is slowed down.
    I don't think that in Iran it would be different so perhaps that also might be an idea.
  9. Yes, it is so important for people to follow the law. :D AN gives the ppl such a good example of a good person following the law. :rolleyes:

    I found this article on twitter this morning:

    Forbes 17 Aug 2009: Spending Threatens Iran's Recovery

    Any ideas on how the oil prices can drop from $70 to $30 and how the Oil Stabilization Fund can empty? We wouldn't poor old AN to have to deal with a collapse in the rial! :rolleyes:
  10. Found this on twitter:

    Mehrnews 14 Aug 2009: Money and Credit Council calls for CBI sovereignty

  11. Machiavelli Member

    That's a veiled attack on the current lunatic inflationary policies and the currency interventions.

    Independent central banks tend to concentrate on their job of stabilizing money and economy.
    What the Central Bank of Iran does right now, doesn't benefit the nation. It only benefits Ahmadi's political goals.

    Crude: Nymex went down again to $65,94 right now. Might well fall a bit further.
    Iran's budget calculated with $70.

    The Oil Stabilization Fund (estimated at 12bn) is a part of the foreign currency reserves of the Central Bank. In the end, which part of those reserves is supposed to serve which purpose doesn't matter much. All of those reserves serve the interests of Ahmadi.
  12. @Machiavelli: so basically keep CBI in AN's hands?>allow AN to fritter OSF away on more bribes?>make sure oil workers are adhering to every regulation in the book (can't be too careful)? Also have to make sure thunderstorms don't disrupt power to rigs.

    Anyone know what kind of surge protects are used?

    I know one problem is campers hanging backpacks over the power lines, ostensibly to protect their food from bears. This could break the conductors in the lines and power could go out in oil regions. This would be really bad for oil, then really bad for rial, then really bad for CBI, then really bad for AN.

    Things to think about.
  13. And that's been my issue since the beginning of this thread. Like you I doubt that humanitarian aid will get into Iran, but if you think that Red Crescent can do it, I think that it would totally change everything if the country were in that state. But more to the point is that if you have a whole country of starving people, you have even more control over them. Hunger and submission go together, unfortunately.

    I appreciate your asking but I'm not sure I have any answers of value.

    Unfortunately, until you have all the bazaris on-side, you've got nothing. They played a huge role in the Revolution and they're needed for this one. But ask anyone, I'm sure they'll say that they could well afford to play last time. This time many of them can't because of the economy.

    A failing economy along with a failing currency only spells humanitarian disaster... it doesn't necessarily spell the downfall of the government.

    The regime is far from stupid, despite the idiotic things they're currently doing. As long as individuals in the regime are lining their coffers with ill-gotten gain, they will keep doing what they're doing. It's abundantly clear they don't care a hoot about human rights or the welfare of ordinary Iranians... unless, of course, they support the regime. I don't think a few million starving people will prick their consciences at all.

    And I'm darn sure they trade in dollars not Rial. In fact, ask any bazari who gets his goods from overseas, and the price will be in dollars, and so will be much of the trade between them. We've brought wholesale goods in from Iran and the invoice was in US dollars. It always is. Ask any Iranian in business what the price of anything is... eg oil or pistachios, and you'll get an answer in dollars. Rial/Toman is almost irrelevant when you're talking big business.

    So where does that leave the Rial? Amongst the ordinary people... the most vulnerable in this scenario.

    I believe that if you hit the regime where it hurts - that they can no longer add to their personal fortunes, then you've got a chance of the stepping down.

    I also think that if you embarrass them enough, you're also in with a chance. They have to be the laughing stock of the world before they'll lay down their 'weapons' and leave. Hence my suggestion about collecting evidence. There has to be so much hard evidence about what they're doing in all sectors, that they can't possibly keep doing it.

    While Iran has parallels in Myanmar and North Korea, where it's not the same, is that Iran has been relatively open before this with internet, satellite TV and so on. There's been so much anti-west rhetoric from the regime, that unlike North Korea, most Iranians just don't believe it any more. They no longer trust their rulers and they are not yet imprisoned in their own country. This is a huge advantage.

    Politics always equals money and power. So, they still think they've got the power with the Basij and their public denials of what's really going on. What's left? Money. It's the regime that has to hurt on this one, not the ordinary people.

    As for detection - that impossible to avoid. If you have a regime as corrupt as this one, you don't know who you're really talking to. And if you think they don't already know about this thread, think again.

    Doesn't mean it can't still happen.

    As we know, the downfall of the regime has to be a multi-faceted approach on so many levels that it can't fail. This is just one of the ways, and I still fully support it as long as it can happen so that ordinary people are hurt as minimally as possible.

    Most think that it's going to be a protracted fight and I think so too. That's the pity of it all - that it's going to take quite some time to achieve what the Iranians want. What will be the end - freedom with a country of starving people, a dead economy and morale down the drain? I sure hope not.
  14. Gist101 Member

    Darn it! Hit the post button before I corrected some typos. Hope you'll still get what I was saying. I've now registered. Maybe now I can edit posts after I've hit the button?

    I also wanted to comment on:

    And so have most of the business people. The business people I know are smart, savvy people, who have fingers in many pies and who know exactly what's going on. They know how to make their money. A few I know even have resident visas for USA, UK or Canada, and they still choose to live and have busineses in Iran. I find that interesting to say the least.
  15. Nedjarsan Member

    Coming back to the initial topic.

    ok lets put the things together again.

    First of all, how much money must really be exchanged to foreign currancy to let loose a big time inflation ?

    Is it realistic, that the regime will let that happen or just bann foreign courrancy for the public, like the DDR (former east-germany) did, after a while.

    How easy it would be to get this ammount of money out of the country
    (...and that would be needed to gain the effects)

    Who will be inflicted in the long term by a massive inflation ?
    ( history showed that even with an inflation the most rich stay rich and the most powerful stay powerful in the aftermath)

    Isn't it that in financial calamity-situations ( created by an inflation eg.) the breeding-grounds for radical ideas and extremists grow like hell
    (had been very often this way)

    If you ask me just the opposite is to be considered:

    Give as much money as You can to the poor and ppls in need to take a way the suffering.
    If Ahmadinocchio can corrupt ppls why the opposition does not do it.
    Would not be that bad, caus it would be for a good course.

    I really do not want to discourage ppls with good ideas here.
    So please answer my questions
  16. Machiavelli Member

    I have to address a few points here:

    We are not looking at a humanitarian crisis here (at least outside the prisons). Iran produces enough food to keep its population well-fed. Not the food is scarce, but the money is aplenty and losing in value.
    A simple solution to this is substituting with another currency, an extreme measure would be barter.

    The act of substituting with another currency at the same time reveals the lie about the state of the economy, the Central Bank is ordered to keep up.

    It is the nature of inflations, that they hurt the holders of currency (my great-grandmother could testify to that). This cannot be changed, the inflation already is there and with each large payday for the basiji it will worsen. Nothing we do here, could change that.
    What we can change is the effect on the ordinary population, by informing them.
    As long as foreign currency is freely available, guarding against inflation is easy. For political reasons, that will not change as long as the central bank believes to be able to sit out the turmoil.

    And knowing about this thread doesn't help the government. They have cornered themselves by perpetrating a public lie and there is no way out, that will not reveal it. There simply isn't.

    That's what this is all about. The decision, to not believe a manipulated inflation statistic and exchange rate and embarass the party promoting the lie by publicly demonstrated disbelief.

    Lining their coffers with ill-gotten gain:
    They will have a harder time getting their hands on the riches of Iran, if they have to compete with the population. Except, if they openly declare foreign currency to be accessible only for "certain" people. Which will be embarassment and exposure of their lie. They will have to steal in the open.

    The evidence is there, it is fully exposed. The Money and Credit Council has understood this and tentavely raised a voice. Maybe the evidence still needs too much understanding for most people, that will change.

    The bazaaris:
    Some bazaaris are profiting from the inflation (the ones with large credit-lines, in net debt). Others not. Understand that and do not wonder, they aren't united.

    The basij:
    If the nation converts to foreign currency or even barter, who is going to pay the basij? With what?
    Will they dare to call back their already secured monies from abroad? To gamble on a possible success?
    I think not.
  17. Machiavelli Member

    The big time inflation is already there. We cannot stop it.

    The hope is, they will ban foreign currency. If they choose to gamble, they will run out of it in due time and not win anything.

    Why should the money leave the country? People need something to pay with. Foreign currency flows out of the control of the government and into the control of the people. Nothing else happens.

    People who own rial get hurt (old people with savings). People who owe (businessmen with large credit lines) profit.
    Be conscious of the factor time. A long time of moderate inflation hurts more than a short peak of high inflation.

    I am trying to avert a calamity situation. Ahmadi is creating one.

    This way you only create suffering, you steal from the savings of old people by destroying the currency (exactly what happens right now).
    Give poor people something of value: schooling, jobs, health care, insurance for hard times and old age. But never in cash. This amount of cash is nothing but colored paper.

    The corruption only works, as long as it is believed. A man with empty pockets cannot corrupt.
  18. Machiavelli Member

    There are two main scenarios:

    1) The government/central bank does not react.

    In this case, everybody could simply use foreign currency instead of rials. The currency reserves of Iran would flow back to the people and those could ignore the inflation in the rial.

    2) Currency Exchange is prohibited

    This will expose a lie (political battle lost). Questions will be asked. Awareness will rise. Awareness implies ability for self-defense. Prices for rugs will rise. Accusations will start.

    How will the IRIA react? They are paid in rial just like everybody else. Think about it.

    Dear Sepah reading this, choose one.
  19. Nedjarsan Member

    Ty for your exhausting explanation of your views.
    I can clearly see and understand your point.
    I agree that this would be the opportunity for the ppls of Iran to do something from inside.
    My dear Mach. i still have some critics because of some other severe side-effects.
    Our generation seem all to have relatives which encountered an inflation once.
    I still remember stories about growing extremists and radicals because of the loss of money value and unemployment.
    Unemployment is the other side-effect of the inflation in the long term, because no worker will accept a chicken as a week-payment.
    It is sad but mostly a bad economy strengthens a dictatorship more than crippeling it.
    Substitute currencies mostly drag in more corruption and a black-market practice.(1st one, bad-thing, second one can be bad thing)
    The pure change to a substitute currency will not change the share of power in the high ranks.
    (they just adept to the situation and change their money too)

    about revealing all their lies (central bank, regime etc.)
    You know, they are dealing with the more worse shame of tortoure and rape quite like silencing it out.

    Inflation in Venezuela did strengthen Chavez's power
    Inflation in Germany helped to bring up the Nazi-Regime.

    These ideas where very often played through with other countries
    (CIA-Plans to throw massivly fake-rubels on the russian market, Germans had Jews forced to produce fals dollars and pounds) and it is a common upper-middle-class idea.( this is no offence)
    In the end of the day the only-ones that will suffer severly from inflation will be the already poor ppls at the bottom of the food-chain.
  20. Nedjarsan Member

    i agree that Ahmadinocchio does

    so let all the opposition-leaders bring in their foreign savings ( don't tell me they do not have) I did not mean to steal it from the older ppls. savings.

    It is true that u cannot eat coloured paper ( money)
    I am 100% percent with You about giving ppls schooling, health-care and insurance.
    Bad thing is that u cannot eat that either.
    Anyways referring to my occupation i am convinced these things should be for free or payed by the rich(as benefit not as investment in their own interest) anyways.

    ohh yer but he will use violance to push through his interests and prevent further suffering and he will use it in favoure for the one who will fill his pockets.

    Once again: i understand Your piont and it has its advantages but i sadly have to see,nearly every day, that intelligence is not fairly enough shared among the race of human mermals ( i did not ment You Mach. but the others)
  21. Machiavelli Member

    Creating inflation is evil. The enormous sums paid for give-aways to certain voters first and for the basij now are creating inflation.

    We try to create awareness for inflation.

    Painful in the short term? Under certain circumstances yes, depending on the actions of the government.
    But the only available cure.

    How to raise that awareness?

    I propose the hard way: pure hysteria. Guaranteed to work. No brains needed.
  22. Hi Ned! Wow, you came up with some good questions this morning. I am afraid I am still woolley-headed so I hope I can understand the answers.

    This point I quoted of yours completely escaped me until now. I don't know why it didn't get it before. Of course the opposition could have been 'bribing' the poor all along. How come we only hear about Ajad doing it? If the opposition has been doing it, then why is it a big secret? And if they have not been doing it, then why not? These guys are millionnaires. No skin off their backs to part with a few bucks.
  23. Nedjarsan Member

    what i understood is that the prosponed method would enhance inflation !
    (tell me, You are the finance-man)

    You certainly did for me !

    So there is nothing wrong about me paniking around, screaming ?

    LOOOL; serious ? Man good old Mach. discussing with you always gives me the feeling of walking through an ammunition-depot with an open torch.
  24. Machiavelli Member

    In the short term that's possible, depending on the actions of the government.
    But they cannot monetarize a run on foreign currency, so inflation would increase for merely psychological reasons. A change in inflation expectations changes actual inflation.

    Sometimes truth might hurt, but avoiding truth is never a better option. Sooner or later it will catch up anyway.

    A bank run simply aimed at getting hold of Iranian currency would give them an opportunity to print even more money. That's not what we are proposing.
  25. Machiavelli Member

    Strong emotions are an energy that can be very contagious.
    In this case, contagion can be very helpful.
  26. But if the bank defaults, how long will Iran be able to feed its 'people'? And how are we defining Iran's 'people'? Are some regions not desperately poor already? Is unemployment not already very high? I know AN has cooked his unemployment figures to make it look like employment has risen, but it has not risen.

    I am still very concerned about there being a possible humanitarian crisis if things keep on going the way they've been going. Persuade me that I should not be concerned and I won't be. Thank you.

    Ah there's the rub. But I am sure the people already know the state of the economy. Only the indoctrinated don't allow themselves to see it. And when they start asking questions, then AN&KM will just blame everything on the protesters and release the hounds.

    Hell has no fury like a Basiji Boy scorned! Or was that a woman scorned? Did I make a faulty analogy? D-oh!

    Is it possible to embarrassed them any more? In any case, I would imagine being embarrassed on the international front might mean that international investors will start shying away from the regime. That will mean the regime will have to increase its black market activities. That in turn will mean that they will have to find and pay for the means to keep some very rough traders under their thumb. More expense, more risk.

    I guess thieves by nature don't like being outed. Its not primarily about the money with them. It's about their self-image. They imagine themselves as superspy superfly.

    I also think they are so used to having things their own way that they have little resistance to adversity. Push their buttons and they'll start making expensive mistakes. When the international investors twig to these mistakes, they'll stop investing. Some of the rough traders will even want to see some of these characters removed from the market.

    I didn't know this. Thank you.

    Sorry, I'm a little slow this morning. I am not following this last point. Would they not pay the Basiji Boys with foreign currency? In any case, the Basiji Boys are so indoctrinated that I suspect they might be OK with being paid in barter.
  27. Machiavelli Member

    Hello Bugs,

    The state of the banks will not change the amount of food that is produced and not the amount of people wanting to eat. It will make transactions more complicated, that's all. At times, trust and the good name of the family will substitute for cash. I doubt, Iranians will let food rot to make their fellow citizens starve. Even in the Weimar Republic Inflation there was hardship, but no starvation.

    They may believe so, but in truth it's much worse.

    Who will believe them?

    They still have supporters. This is about embarassing them in front of their last opportunistic supporters. Cast their promises in doubt.

    That would be the foreign currency they were planning to steal. Hard choice. Eat the cookie or give it away?

    At the very least they will lose enthusiasm. But some might get angry enough to change sides.
  28. Hello Machi. Thank you for your good answers. You're tough, but tough is good because it makes us think. I also haven't a clue about economics and this is no secret.

    1) the hounds
    2) the owners of the throats around which the jaws of the hounds are closing.


    I hear you about starvation not happening. I am not entirely convinced. But let's leave it for now. Trouble with all that, however, is that nobody wants another Weimar, another WW2, another well, you get the picture.

    Man does not live by bread alone. A good man will go hungry if he is fed by an honourable principle. Sep seems bereft of honourable principles. Their tactics may work short term, but they sure as hek are going the way of all flesh in the long term.

    Better than doubt: inconsistent positive reinforcement. Give em a few victories, then pull the rug out from under them. Drives em crazy. Makes for very strong doubt. Doubting people are weak people.

    The people are not weak. The people can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Why? Because the light at the end of the tunnel exists. It's there. It's real. What's to doubt about something that is real? Let's keep our eyes on the prize, guys.

    Or counterfeit more US$.

    I dunno about this. The power of belonging, of feeling 'special' is pretty powerful in these guys. They're indoctrinated. Their not firing on all cylinders. Not paddling with both oars in the water. They're gonna hang on til the bitter end. They'll have doubts and that'll make em feel uncomfortable as hek. Then they'll just take it out on the vulnerable. The very young, the very old, the sick. Sad.

    Gee, now I wonder how we can turn that need to belong, that need to feel special into a need to belong to the human race once again? Hhhhmmm... thoughts anyone?
  29. Nichol Member

    the moral attack

    .. I was thinking about the manual for 1st-aid for prison survivors put together on twitter by sp4rrowh4wk and friends. That is pretty strong stuff. What if it is printed and distributed, especially to the mothers and relatives of police and basiji? It would be really funny if a text written to help the downtrodden could become a weapon to attack the mighty.
  30. Machiavelli Member

    Not so bad, not so bad at all...:)
  31. Ariss Member

    New News!

    Hi Bugs, Machi & others!

    Just read this interesting article (found by twitter):
    Iran Bans Leasing Of More Russia-Built Planes | Asbarez News

    Seems like Iran's government is short-sighted enough to cut the lines on all fronts. Such decisions won't help the Iranian-Russian business relations to prosper, I guess. Or do you think Iran's airlines will have enough money to suddenly purchease some dozens of brand-new planes, without going bankrupt ?
  32. @ Ariss

    Iran airline or Rafsanjani airline may have the money but most aircrafts have the American parts and Americans ban sales of the aircraft parts to iran.
    I can understand the ban - most aircraft parts are so called the dual use components
  33. Careful. I mean no diss. This idea has potential. Only let's shed some light on the consequences.

    Material distributed to predators who are most likely themselves victims of predators: well, that material must be airtight (not saying that HGS isn't) and that material must be delivered by people with unassailable motives (not saying that HGS are not). HGS is a good thing to think about for Green survivors. But how many Basiji Boys consider themselves part of the Green movement?

    1) Right now, it might seem like a cool idea to 'convert' our Basiji Boys by means of info on trauma caused by sexual abuse: turn the BB (and Sep) tactics on their head. But it will backfire. Why?

    2) Because, in order to work, the intent must be to help the BBs to regain their place among the human race with human values. The intent must be genuine, not driven by bitterness or desire to one-up. Simply put, to help someone else choose life over death, we must choose life over death. If the intent is to one-up those who cause harm, then they will reject the message and forever be unreachable -- except by the Almighty (which btw we are not).

    3) Cut to the chase, a separate package might be better received. The terminology 'Healing the Green Soul' will be suspect among our BBs. Something along the lines of 'Healing the Basiji Boy Soul'. But it takes a very special heart to deliver this message. Any applicants? Seriously, now is the time to come forward. You don't have to tell us you have come forward. In fact it is probably better if you don't tell us. Just respond to the call.


    Time? Healing anyone's soul takes time. Any goal must have time integrity. What kind of timelines have yall thought about for our goals? Last week, for example, Machi proposed that a bank default could take as little as 150 days. On that timeline, we have 141 days left.

    Progress report? How many of you have been tweeting the bank/currency/economy info?


    Thoughts? :)
  34. Machiavelli Member


    I think you misunderstood...

    The idea seems to be directed at the extensive family of the basijis. Especially the female family members presumably. To show them what monster their dear brother/son/cousin may be on those days, he's coming home late...

    The basijis themselves will not be swayed by a piece of paper.

    How to get it there is a more complicated question.
  35. Perhaps I misunderstood. :eek:

    Still, persuading Mums that their dear sons are monsters is something I wouldn't take on lightly. (Not without a steel-lined jockstrap!)

    One might even wonder how their sons got to be monster-material in the first place. In any case, what would you want the Mums to do once they found out? What can they do?

    But what I really want to underline is that I think it is risky to take a sensitive well-intentioned gesture and use it for a purpose for which it was not designed.

    The very least which could happen is that it could bring the HGS into disrepute.

    I see three separate things. Correct me if I am wrong.

    1) Healing the Green Soul.
    2) Healing the Basiji Boy Soul.
    3) Outing the Basiji Boys to their Mums.

    As for how to get 'Healing the Basiji Boy Soul' out there: simple. Produce flyers. Glue them to their motorbikes. The flyers could list symptoms of ptsd and then give a web address.
  36. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    a large number of trash containers have been destroyed in Tehran and elsewhere. litter blows all over the streets, it is carried like dust and dirt into even the most tidy of houses. sadly, there does appear to be more of a certain kind of litter these days. it is as if people have simply been leaving papers around to be blown away.

    i apologize, the amount of litter in some cities is really a topic for another thread.
  37. Quite a few tweets about rally at Azadi Sq this Friday 30 mordad at 7 pm.

    1) Is this confirmable?

    2) Is this disinformation?

    3) Is this a reg trap?

    Anybody have any further confirmable information? Thank you.
  38. jadt65 Member

    Quick cautionary note

    It is my impression based on what I have read about the Basijs they fall in the following categories:

    1. They are there for the money & few other options. They have expressed some regret, remorse ect for their actions--->
    There is a possibility they might be traumatized by their own actions.

    2. There are those who have limited intellectual functioning, ie. mentally retarded....they have limited understanding of their actions & most likely are receiving secondary gain from the approval of their leaders. In a sense they are victims too because their limitations are being exploited by the Basij commanders. It would be very difficult to "reach" this subset unless the are literally extracted from the Basij & a lot of therapeutic intervention to deprogram.

    3. Those who are true antisocial or borderline personality types--->they are unable to feel empathy for others & not able to form emotional bonds & use others to meet their own needs. They have a multitude of thinking errors
    (viewing people as inanimate objects, justifying their actions, eg. "He/she deserved it"; denial-eg. the regimes statements "there is torture/rape in the prisons, and the list goes on & on). This is the group most likely to take information targeted at assisting survivors & their families and use it as a weapon. The thinking errors are "learned" and the family dynamics of these people are using very dysfunctional and the members of the family are not likely to be receptive to the type of information which is being suggested. In fact, it might actually cause family members to act along with the basij.

    What is the answer....defeat the regime & deal with each individual basij is the only thing I know of.....this is really difficult to address to target Basij members in the current situation. Maybe someone else has the solution.
  39. Anybody have any news on the Kurdish protests? Thank you.

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