thank you so much Ashkan Goldstein for your kind words and offers of assistance. unfortunately what i know of economics one could very easily write on a single sheet of paper. what Iranis are doing is trying to convert their rials into dollars or euros or another stable currency. there is not very much of a run on the banks yet. i have not a good enough grasp on economic theory to assist or advise people. economics courses did not seem to have been offered in very many places, probably to eventually ween everyone not IRG away from this field with regard to a window of opportunity, i honestly have no idea how long it would take to collapse a currency/economy. this unknowing is contrasted with the following: each side is still playing for position. as in chess, even after attrition begins, position is of utmost importance. the warrants for Mousavi & Co., for example, may never be served, but *do* serve to highlight Khamenei's refusal of various offer(s), his stance on Mousavi, they will keep some people off balance, etc. because each side is maneuvering it is important to define when is 'too late'. too late is not a shooting war, with current conventional weapons. too late is not when people lose their nerve or determination, as this will never happen given all the things we have lived and grown up with, etc. too late is the enrichment of enough fissionable material to create even a single atomic explosive device. the IRG cannot win a conventional war currently and will postpone with all tools at their disposal. all efforts seem (to me) to be aimed at postponing any sort of commitment or definable stance which can then be acted upon by Raf & Co. i have some difficulty convincing anyone here at home of this, however. there is no wild card in chess, but on this board the people are a definite wild card. i believe no one - no one - has expected the people to behave quite as they have thus far. this is why the protests, and eventual armed escalation - even if only in small isolated pockets - are so crucially important. they play into Raf's hand and can only be detrimental to the regime. the peaceful maintain the high ground, the violent provoke the IRG troops. if there is enough violence, the military will have to be called. Raf may call out the military on friday anyway. i think JohnDoe has said elsewhere, that we are in completely uncharted waters. to some extent this is true. anyway, you asked about time. pardon me please, time for what? the question i think you were asking is, how much time do we have until the regime has a nuclear weapon? can the economy, therefor the regime, be crushed peacefully before this event? a correlating question: does the military have the will to move, or is outside force warranted? i can give you only my perspective on information which you already posses: estimates range from approximately 6 months to 2 years on Iran's ability to create a nuclear device. the game the regime is playing is one of bait and feint. baiting the west abroad and Raf/Mous/et al at home; and feinting with short jabs and apparent mis-steps. is this a game one plays for 2 years? i hardly think so. this is a very short term game one plays against a much stronger opponent when one is convinced of the final upper hand. like waiting for the cavalry to arrive and troops have to hold the pass for some possibly unknown, but short period of time. Khamenei has been given options- more than fair in my humble estimation. he keeps agreeing, then appearing to renege, then tries to agree to something else. it is a stall and i think this type of game (the way it is being played now) cannot last for long. *much* closer to 6 months than 2 years. the military will move when Raf says so. errr, except for the smuggling weapons and advice part. and maybe some of the really patriotic ones have already uhm taken leave that was owed. and i have heard there is some distress (soldiers always complain though, right?) that soldiers feel they are betraying their countrymen who line up every day to be slaughtered or herded off to Evin for torture and rape. then slaughter. so the peaceful and the violent are both helping to provoke our own honorable soldiers, as well. please, having been given my estimation, i ask you: can we crush the economy within 6 months? i would prefer to see 4 months. perhaps a little less. hello Bugs Bunny- please forgive me, but where would the IRG invade? the IRG have their hands full at home. only approximately 30% of IRG forces are with the coup leaders. possibly less if reports i hear re. retired Sepah generals arrests are true. an invasion might generate nationalism but would, with absolute certainty, bring the justifiable might of all the world's armies down on the regime. basij are used to occupy Iran and cannot wisely be used in an invasion force. sorry, a civil war was what i meant. i think the estimates are optimistic on time and pessimistic on deaths, but that is the info i have. i think the real point to be drawn from this estimate is: we will take care of this trivial problem. we are out numbered and they are somewhat better equipped, but we will still carry the day due to exceptional levels of training and morale. i sincerely believe this interpretation, if not the actual numbers.