Opportunity to cripple the Islamic Dictatorship

Discussion in 'News And Current Events' started by Unregistered, Aug 5, 2009.

  1. To all members of the Green Movement: This article does an outstanding job of explaining why it is absolutely imperative to begin getting your money out of Iran or at least into a different currency. This would be a crushing blow to the dictatorship and more importantly, it would be done in a peaceful and strategic manner. Use your brains and intellect to defeat this stupid dictatorship.

    Tehran Struggles to Defend Currency -
  2. wall street journal???

    rupert murdoch???

    fox news???
  3. Bottom of message says WSJ.
  4. This is good. Very good. I hope the message reaches the audience. It makes a lot of sense. If you create an extreme abundance of rials, the currency is bound to crash. You could even do more. Start trading using dollars. Or if you don't like america use, euros, turkish liras, bottle caps, whatever. Simply do not use rials... The best way to make a conceptual construct disappear is to remove its real life impact. What real life impact does a government have if not its currency (and violence ;) ) If you crash the currency, even the wages Basiji receive will be useless. If they are not earning a living they might even change sides. At least they will have to switch their wage to bottle caps as soon as they get it. And hence contribute to the downward spiral.
  5. someone should put this on twitter or facebook
  6. Economic factors in the protest

    This is good news indeed, for a series of reasons. It might not be good for the future of Iran, but it poses great opportunities for the protesters to seize at the moment.

    Now it's the time for members of the Green Movement to not only chant on the streets, but to seek out players of the econonomy, the Bazaris, or just the people of the coutryside. It would be incredibly important to establish contacts and tell them: the protests were not the main factor causing economic troubles. On the contrary, they were consequences of economic and political problems . It is vital that important circles of economy, such as the Bazaris percieve the Green Movement as an ally and not a threat to their business.

    A movement aimed to topple a well-established regime should have an extreme wide base of support. And support by majority of people also have a very important projection in the world of economy. Just remember from the history books: The earliest Islamic Arab conquerors seeminly knew this fact, as they offered freedom form certain tax(es) if one converted to Islam.


    The current Iranian economy is stifled by many factors. One is its heavy state control. Another one is the centralization of power to IRCG members and IRCG-run businesses. This certainly makes all other groups of society heavily disgruntled about the economic power IRCG yields. Use it to your advantage!

    Another fact is Iran's reliance on crude oil export, at least when it comes to external trade relations. While this is a good tool in the hand of government to blackmail other nations (even the US), people inside Iran have little share of this lucrative business - they actually se very little benefit from it in their everyday lives (even the petrol needs to be imported, and paid in dollar). I bet they would really love to see the change in this situaton.

    People on the countryside are - more often than not - dirt poor. All they have is just hope for a better future, to earn a fair living. They may have supported Ahmadi in his campaign, in hope of getting a few coins more of payment for their work. Now this hope was taken away, just as the campaign (+the rigging) came to fruition. These people can, and need to be adressed by the Sea of Green. If they see the hope for a better life that only a change to more liberal system can bring, they would gladly pledge their lives and loyalty to this movement.

    And - finally - there is the heavy unemployment. It's not the consequence of the recent recession of world economy. Many young and talented peole are unable to find a place to work, and when they would come to the decision to take things into their hand, and start their own business, they are impeded by stupid, short-sighted governmental restrictions.


    To make a long post sum in a few words: The green movement needs to seize this opportunity, not to let it pass away, or to be used by the oppressors. And remember: Time is short. It always is.
  7. Machiavelli Member

    The most important point is:
    Handing out large sums of money for non-productive reasons (Basiji, promises to voters, corruption) creates inflation.

    It's that simple. It only takes approx. half a year to slowly dribble through the system.

    But it seems obvious that the floodgates where opened in a way that cannot be turned back.
    People in Iran have to know this:

    In half a year's time, there will be inflation running wild in Iran.

    The side-effect is, by protecting themselves from inflation they will bring down the regime.
  8. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    Unregistered, you have made many excellent points! Machiavelli- just saw your post re inflation. Excellent posts! i read them several times. people generally play down the effect constant protesting has, but as mentioned or implied, they are absolutely vital!

    i am by no means an expert on the history of the Soviet Union, but their large economies of scale have many comparisons to Iran's one main income supply in the oil industry. i am given to understand the Soviet system was brought down through external and mounting self created _internal_ economic pressure which- when combined by the right amount of other internal pressures at just the right time- proved too much for the system to handle. Iran's system will fall. this inevitability is something of which regime members still need to be convinced.

    now we are locked in a race.

    please see Ahmadinejad and the Mahdi :: Middle East Quarterly
    or As a CIA spy, I saw in Iran what the West cannot ignore | (if you have not already) for additional confirmation of my statements regarding the complete insanity of the coup leaders' mindsets.

    will pressures cause the regime to collapse before the madmen can develop a nuclear weapon?

    we are doing everything we can to increase internal pressures. the powerful must maintain a certain posture. much more importantly, they must allow their undecided colleagues room, like large ships, to gracefully change direction.

    the brave move quickly and chaotically. like corsairs around the armada, they will outmaneuver larger, slower ships of the regime. such ships may simply sink and be lost. the brave have just barely begun to move violently.

    some bazaari are with us, they understand the dismal shape the economy is in, and where it is headed. troops are stationed at petroleum facilities, senior managers have been arrested. moral at petrol companies is very low, so naturally production is down. ;)

    all things combine to hasten the inevitable end of this regime. again, we are in a race. as much external, combined pressures as possible must be applied. nation states or individual policy makers, may disagree on the benefits (or even the possibility, shame on you!) of a democratic Iran. absolutely no one can deny the malignancy of a nuclear Iran with her current leadership.

    external economic pressure, from multiple sources, must be applied to speed the onset of democracy and sanity. external violence will leave us preparing for this day again. mounting internal violence will hopefully be avoided, but is part of the process. we must do and cause our bleeding ourselves. but pressure applied economically will staunch the blood flow and hasten quick recovery.

    this is a race. we do not have the luxury of waiting for the inevitable.
  9. 400000 basiji @ 200$ a day
    over time pay for police and other sec forces.
    buying to keep currency from falling.
    buying to keep stockmarket up
    replacing lost add rev for state propeganda (OPtv etc)
    lol even replacing vastebins set on fire during protests
    income loss from taxes( much less buisniss than useually)
    funds disapiring as ppl scramble to get their share before the colapse...

    i wonder how much over bugdet the regime is by now??
  10. Machiavelli Member

    Dear folks,

    Finance is my day job, so I know a thing or two about it.

    I just saw sparrowhawk's post on fleeing capital ( This story in Turkey seems to be pure hearsay, but IRGC bringing money abroad is rational and what is rational is likely.

    If it's true, that IRGC is bringing gold and currency reserves abroad (Cyberwar Iran 2009: Part XVII – Follow the Money – Ariel Silverstone’s Security Blog �Ariel Silverstone), while taxi drivers lose confidence in the rial and prefer to have US dollars at home (the WSJ article above), then the Irani banking system is extremely vulnerable right now.

    And that's before government spending is spiralling out of control. Basic economic theory holds that increased spending creates inflation with a time lag of 6 months more or less.
    Because inflation weakens the currency, it will also hurt the state's currency reserves. And the central bank is fighting a desperate defensive battle to keep their target rate already. They are beginning to sound like the Bank of England in 1992 (the Bank of England lost).

    And that's before the virtual stop of foreign direct investment that also hurts the currency reserves.

    This leaves the central bank between a hard place and a brick.

    If people try to get their deposits from banks, the central bank might supply the banks with all the rials needed. But they can supply people only with a limited amount of dollars.

    At a certain point they will either need to ration dollars or let the currency slip into a dark hole or they can simply fail to help the banks.

    All three possibilities essentially spell doom for bank deposits in rial. And there is no 4th alternative.

    Given this, the rational thing for every Iranian/Bazaari is to withdraw deposits as long as it's still possible and before inflation skyrockets and convert all his cash into hard international currency. This is not political, it is economic prudence. Even the IRGC is intelligent enough to do it.

    That's what needs to be communicated in Iran.

    And widespread knowledge of this will itself kill either the banks or the currency, depending on the actions of the central bank.

    Which leaves Ahmadi as the engineer of financial catastrophy in the eyes of his followers and the regime essentially bankrupt and possibly unable to pay Basiji.
  11. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    thank you, Machiavelli. we will see what happens. i hope you will forgive my plagiarism, i am woefully ignorant regarding most things of the economy.
  12. Just some brainstorming...

    Dear folks,

    Googling around the net, reading blogs, news archives, analyses, watching reports, I have found a number of other weak points of the Iranian economy. These might serve as targets or tools for the Green Movement, to weaken the regime and gain more supporters.

    First is the - of course - petrol. Is it trute that it's still heavily subsideized by the government? As I read, a brief time ago it was still sold for about 1/5 of its original (international) price. If so, one could use a simple trick (some have obviously used it before) to rip the government from all its money by using only an ordinary car. You only have to do the following: fill your fuel tank full of gasoline, pay for it (in rials) near the border (e.g. Iraq-Iran), drive through the border, then shortly after, find an appropriate place to sell the petrol from your tank - for at least 2 or 3 times the price you have bought it. Then just drive back to Iran with the little fuel left in your car and repeat. If you have the right partners on the other side, and there aren't any major hurdles bypassing the border multiple times a way, there's the way to get rich!! You not only earn a good deal of money each turn, but also get it in a currency possibly better than the Rial.
    You possibly don't know, but the same method was employed in Eastern Europe, more closely Eastern Germany, many times. There was a trick, for example, with the eggs. The price of eggs to be bought from producer was fixed, but the price to be sold was way lower. So merchants often played the trick of re-buying the same set of wares (in this case, simple eggs) from themselves to earn a good deal of money. And I can tell you: IT WORKED!

    Apart from the funny proposal above, fuel supply is a real bottleneck in Iran. Remember the protests in 2007 ??? I doubt the government wishes to provoke them again. But in case of supply shortage, they would have to resort to rationing once again. As for the protests that a renewal of rationing may spark... I wouldn't want to be in the place of Mr. A.-N.

    Another weak point of Iranian economy are the so-called "Bonyads", charity trusts, that are immune to the goverment's fiscal controls, are extremely corrupt, and have nothing to do with charity. Despite the laws that governed their fundations, and their operational rules, they don't care about people or poverty. They don't aid anyone, only themselves and serve as intransparent blocks for the power-holders to earn (dirty) money from. They are not only haunted by deficits (that money went into the pockets of know...), but they themseves are a factor that impedes development in many sectors of economy, by harassing and competing with private companies.

    I bet many people out there works for a Bonyad. I wonder how content they are with the way they work. They could likely tell long stories on corruption. We may even learn the names where that money went.... And, maybe if we ask the poor on their opinion - after all, they are "charity organisations", aren't they? They are clearly a hot issue, something that should be brought up on as many forums as possible. Such organisations should be demanded to be abolished by making them into a regular company (something they owners, with close ties to the current regime would hardly want), or to uphold their "charity trust" nature, and give the money to those who are in necessity. I think you may get a heap of votes from people in need for emphasizing that. And I doubt that people from the middle class would support such corruption. They would most likely support your policy, too. That leaves only a buch of regime-true IRCG members in opposition.

    I know these highlighted tips might not be helpful at all. I was merely trying to "brainstorm" a few ideas and concepts out, trying to help the Green Movement the best way I can.
  13. article on petrol rationing protest in 07

    heres link to interesting article on the fuel protests back in 07---
    Iran Fuel Rationing Sparks Anger, Protests

    another interesting point already mentioned is : petrol has to be refined out of iran as they lack largescale facilities there-anyone know who are the main suppliers of refined oil ?

  14. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    Ariss, thank you for brainstorming. everything we can do to hurt the economy is extremely important. many people are reluctant to speak out right now, and most journalists are imprisoned, but i will see if a new crop of young (or old) aspiring journalists are prepared to research a story.

    if anyone should find a current or former bonyad employee, there is a CNN correspondent looking for a story of this nature. Octavia Nasr, i believe. (please forgive me if i have not gotten the name correct)

    JohnDoe, i am very glad to hear of this additional way to hit the regime's pocket! i certainly would not want to return to Iran right now if i had left, and i am _very_ glad your friends have returned safely. sometimes people overlook the value of tourist revenue. Iran is surely running low on taxes, etc. from hotels and resorts.

    any other ideas are greatly appreciated.
  15. planned oil refineries

    National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    In 2007, Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri-Hamaneh noted that the country's oil refining industry needs a $15 billion investment for its development. He also noted that construction of Hormuz refinery in Bandar Abbas city and Abadan city in Khuzestan, each with a daily capacity of 300,000 and 180,000 barrels (29,000 m3), respectively and a gas condensate plant in Bandar Abbas with a capacity of 360,000 barrels per day (57,000 m³/d) are among Iran's new projects. [4]

    Going forward, FACTS reports that Iran will complete construction of these three 120,000 bbl/d (19,000 m³/d) condensate splitters by 2009 (360,000 barrels per day in total). The facilities will produce an estimated 200,000 bbl/d (32,000 m³/d) of gasoline. Along with other projects to extend capacity at Arak, Abadan and Isfahan refineries, it is possible that Iran will cease being a gasoline importer by 2010 and will become a net exporter by 2013.[5]

    In December 2008, Iran announced its plans to construct seven oil refineries at a cost of $27 billion by 2013. The production capacity of the country in gasoline and gas-oil will increase by 1.9 and 1.8 million liters per day respectively.[6]

    Khuzestan refinery, The Persian Gulf Star refinery, Shahriar refinery, Anahita refinery, Hormoz refinery, Caspian refinery and Pars refinery are the seven planned refineries, the Mehr news agency reported. When these refineries are complete, the nation's refining capacity of crude oil and gas condensates will be raised by 1,560,000 barrels while 110 million liters will be added to its gasoline production.[7]

    by the way the link to tehran oil refining company -the sight has no info running on it!!!?
    Tehran Oil Refining Company Official Website >> Main Page

  16. Machiavelli Member

    Have you read the traffic thread?

    The original idea was to create jams all around the bazaar. Customers could take the metro, but the delivery of goods would be a lot harder. And buying heavy objects would also become more difficult.
  17. Target the leaders' own business interests!

    I have reacently played with the thought. The leaders of the current regime must have their own business interests insite Iran, sure they have! If so, you (who are more aquantained with gossips coming from Iran) might know quite a few of them. They should be one of the principal target of boycotts, both inside and outside the country!

    The public internet sites do not offer a clue of these business interests. For example, AN just stated the following of himself (back in 2006): Iran's Ahmadinejad reveals his assets
    Something in me tells that this piece of information is not quite correct. Somehow I suspect that either he, or his family or his closest friend is ruling over a large deal of property worth millions of US$. Am I not alone with my suspects?

    If only we could find where the money of the leaders is invested, we surely had a target!
  18. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    this is an excellent idea, Unregistered. i have no access to confirm this kind of information and so must rely on others. others who will ferret out, for example, IRG no bid, lucrative construction contracts. or airstrips and sea ports used for their virtual monopoly on the black market. others who may determine who will own the new refineries being built.

    i did not uncover the original information on money being transferred out of country. there are places i cannot go.
  19. exposing corruption in militia/police/etc

    perhaps forming an anti corruption movement
    I have heard that officials, basij and police are involved with supply of opium/heroin/alcohol
    drug addiction is endemic-alot of corruption around Khorasan(bordr with afghanistan-opium/heroin)
    then there is the whole range of "buying previlidges" university places etc-fresher food,petrol extras!! blackmail,extortion/protection racketeering
    its all been going on a long time and many repeat MANY people have had enough..'
  20. Machiavelli Member

    I've been thinking about all this again.
    I really believe that striking the economy can be deadly.

    The downside is of course, you might be considered as hooligans.

    Therefore I think, it would be wise to prepare some extreme actions, but hold back for awhile (which also gives time for preparation). If Mousavi gets arrested, it is definitely time to strike on all fronts.

    So, what I thought about is attacking the electrical grid.

    1) Hackers
    The US electrical grid was known to have a hacker weakness. Not sure, if that applies to the Iranian grid as well. Maybe some computer cracks could weigh in here.

    2) Overland lines
    You'd need to figure out, where the elctricity gets produced and interrupt the lines from there to Tehran. If it's really overland, they would be extremely hard to protect.

    A good way to attack them would be to bridge them with some conductor. Of course, you would need to be extremely careful. You could try to connect a long metal chain with two long wooden poles. You would need two people to climb the mast and then hold the chain over two main lines. Each person moving one of the poles. Then you let the poles simply drop simultaneuosly. Make sure not to touch them, once they are dropped and keep them also from touching the mast you're on. Something like that.

    This is really powerful only, if it's timed.
    Happening at many places more or less simultaneously during a major spike in consumage. Then you have a fair chance to bring the whole grid down.

    3) Ironing de luxe
    I got informed, that switching on and off simultaneously (at the main fuse) works better than just plugging everything in. Perfect time is supposed to be between 30s and 1min. This needs some organizing though (people need to set their watches to the same time). But this should work locally, hitting the regional transformation station.
  21. Machiavelli Member

    Yeah, with "Ironing". That was to create a temporary brown-out. If you want to bring the whole grid down - and for a longer time, you need some coordinated action.
  22. Expand the basis of movement!

    As for me, I still think that the gravest problem with the Green Movement is, that - while the majority of Iranin people secretly supports it in their heart - they do nothing to show it in public or even to aid it, out of fear (and sloth).

    You have yet to find a way to activize the masses. They just appear to be living their everiday lives, sitting at home, and "waiting for the change to come". Now, it's NOT the way revolutions work. If they leave that work to a small warband of youth (few thousands, who dare to demonstrate). This critic is especially true to the people living in small towns and rural areas, since we heard practically no reports from ANY protests or related activity from there. Seems like the countryside is silent.

    Please, excuse me for my critical approach.
  23. It won't bother Ahmadi one bit

    He will exclaim "Look how many Rials we get per Barrel of Oil." :D
  24. I have had a sense for some time now that something has to happen to help the people before this Winter. What exactly, I am not in a position to know. But certainly this is one of the reasons we had an earlier discussion about every country contacting their local Red Crescents to make sure that preparations are in place for humanitarian aid.
  25. You and I so frequently think the same thoughts, Machi. :D

    OK, let's discuss the logistics of this suggestion. I believe even trained electricians would get this wrong and electrocute themselves. Untrained country folk are dead in the water.

    However, not to worry. All is not lost. It's a good idea. Let's tweak it.

    Let's not use a conductor. ie, no metal parts at all.

    In Eastern Canada and the US, oh some years back, there was something called the Ice Storm. It brought whole grids in multiple parts of both countries down for weeks. Oh it was horrendous! Even the military couldn't bring the grids up again fast enough. Whole brigades of volunteers had to go out.

    Operative action: it rained on the electrical cables. The rain froze. The ice weighed the cables down until the wires inside snapped: open circuits; damage to connectors; no current flowing through to the users.

    A warm weather equivalent would be something like a very heavy bolo: A dynamic rope (the kind bought at a mountaineering shop) and two heavy weights at either end.

    Then you need a way of getting them over the cables running between two poles. I would not recommend climbing the poles. No no no, Jack! Too close to connectors there. There would be surging, arcing and boom -- you're blown off the pole and into the wild blue yonder!

    Simplest way is to shotput one weight over the cable. If that one bolo doesn't do the trick then five bolos might do it. Some experimentation is necessary.

    Your thoughts, please, Machi?
  26. Just make fun of them...!

    Better not play with this type of "sabotage" action, as this is actually more dangerous to the folks trying to damage the electric cables, than to the network (normally, most places should get supply from at least two endpoints to avoid frequent fluctuation of imput due to weather & like). It's safer to dug out water pipelines, but better not do that, either.

    Without actually damaging anything, you can still "put a lot of pepper under the regime's nose". That's civil disobedience about. You may even use the regime's own propaganda against it. For example, go to a mass rally organised by Ahma., and when the part comes to clamor & hooray, just don't stop clapping your hands and hooraying literally for hours, so he can't start his speech (this is based on a true story that happened in Eastern Europe during the communism - the suppreme leader of Hungary wasn't let to say his speech by the "adoring" crowds... what a shame...!). Just express your adoration to the current government. You can literally 'love them to their death'. Another good tip is to make a fashion from distorting regular hate chants in mosques. When the part comes "death to X", you know what to say...! And hey... you could use some ironic flower language with regular slogans as well. So that the mad government has to prohibit all verbal expressions actually "adoring" them... Imagine the laughter of people in Iran reading the news!!!!

    I see that many former protesters, inprisoned, are noew facing their trial. Almost everyone knows that these trials are a show. NOW, if you have the guts, you can make it a REAL show. What if the accused would confess anything... - even things that weren't required by the government to do so - grand underground shemes, secret Izraeli war plans, American commands directly from Obama, something that really makes the show? This would tears into the peoples' eyes, but not of sympathy, but of laughter at the regime!!!
    There's only one thing a totalitarian system cannot tolerate: humour and wits!!

    As for the earlier posts: indeed, it would be important to spread the word from the Green Movement inside Iran. The Iranian society is unlike the western, not yet plagued by deep social isolation, so almost everyone should have plenty of relatives and friends there. Just visit them and put your rhetoric skills to good use. In times of suppression, a "chain of gossips" can work wonderfully to bring the truth (something they will never hear or see in state-sponsored media), and the message of the movement. I believe most of the people in Iran, especially those living in smaller settlements far from the cities are more or less misinformed about the recent events. And - by telling everything to reliable friends and relatives by blood, you might suddenly find the Sea of Green "swollen" with another few millions of supporters ready to protest... Do what you need to do!
  27. Machi, others, and myself have already discussed dealing with the backup systems.

    As I have taken troubles to point out, the dangers to the folks throwing the bolos are minimal. Other than the obvious dangers of being arrested.

    Damage is going to occur no matter what people do or do not do. It is the nature of existing on this planet. Rain falls. Wind blows. The Earth shakes. Put something up and eventually it is going to come down.

    The goal is not to avoid damage. Damage is inevitable. The goal is to determine which action gives the most benefit and the least damage at least to the protest movement.

    If the regime could be brought down by merely making fun of it, then it would be down already.
  28. Machiavelli Member

    That's understood.

    But this is a complex system. If you cut lines at enough places simultaneously (i.e. within the time window where the first interruption can be repared again), than you can bring down the whole thing. If the load cannot reach Tehran centre, they have to turn off the generator plants to avoid overheat.

    And once the grid is truly down, there is no end of problems in bringing it up again.

    The problem is, you have to think twice beforehand to not kill yourself and you have to strike at several places in one night/morning.

    And those masts should be pretty high. I don't know any method to shoot weights across.
  29. I am no longer talking about the big masts.

    Do you not have a network of smaller poles? I am assuming your grid works from large to smaller to smallest. Big conductors, smaller conductors, house conductors.

    Even for the big users, do the conductors not have to be stepped down before usage?
  30. Dro Member

    How about a grappling hook? There are in fact compressed air powered grappling hook guns out there. And if you don't have access to a commercial one, anyone who has watched the show Mythbusters (my favorite TV show) knows that it is fairly easy (if you are a reasonably skilled machinist) to make a compressed air powered cannon. They are compact, cheap and will not produce a flash or a bang, so you can remain stealthy until the actual electric short takes place. All you have to do is shoot the hook across the wires at the midpoint between two pylons, run underneath the wires and pull until you cause a short.

    Now a disclaimer. We are just armchair revolutionaries sitting in safety in free countries, and are not taking any real risks. If anyone in Iran reads this, please do not take anything we say here at face value. If you are going to try something like this, please make sure you know what you are doing first. I certainly have no experience that qualifies me to give advice, other than a fairly good knowledge of the laws of physics.
  31. Well I too was thinking of a grappling hook or even the kind of hoists you can mount on a pick up truck; the kind you use to build a timber frame house.

    But I thought: how many people can afford that kind of equipment? Besides if the people were busted then how are they going to explain having an air-powered grappling hook and a hoist in the back of their pick up?

    So revision to my suggestion and, Machi, this would be for small poles, not mega-masts:

    Buy some climbing gear. Dynamic ropes, caribiners and other rock attachments. And ... er... go climbing in the beautiful mountains of Iran. :)

    Just by accident, somebody could attach a caribiner to one end of the dynamic rope and throw it over the cable. then place a portable table under the cable. then put two heavy weights on the table. then attach each end of the dynamic rope to a heavy weight.

    Then remove the table.

    Well, I have a background in electrical and some in physics. No doctorates, nothing like that. But that's why I recommended against untrained people using conductors. the dynamic rope and weight method is safer.
  32. I am doing some reading on the other screen on this subject. I just want to be sure I am understanding you properly. When you say 'mast' do you mean 'pylon': that steel structure; very very high for high voltage transmission?


    If so, I would agree that doing anything with those is gonna be ... er... not simple. I am talking about these:

  33. Dro Member

    Well, the problem is that the latter structure, while easy to disable, will not do that much damage. Now, there are things in between the two. This, for example:


    is a 110 kV line. It carries enough power to feed a small town, as opposed to the your second example, which is only going to feed a block or two. Yet, it should be fairly straightforward to disable.
  34. Yeah, totally Dro. Good sleuthing. Looks low enough to the ground to throw a carabiner over. The rest is local intel. We don't want to shut down towns. We want to shut down small plants. Put the pressure on the business community to support a general strike. And maybe take out some small-time regime supporters as well. What do you think, Dro? Machi?
  35. Im sure the people whose power gets cut off will be really happy, and it will only increase their enthusiasm for the opposition movement.
  36. Dro, I am thinking something higher than a portable table is needed. There is most likely quite a bit of slack built into those cables. So maybe the mounting of the weights can be done on a ladder. Or even simpler, by climbing half way up those steel supports. You'd need two guys (one for each weight) on the support and one guy to carry the thrown caribiner to the guys on the support.

    And yeah, to respond to Unreg: some more research is needed to make sure folks are not cutting power to opposition regions.
  37. Dro Member

    It is doable in principle. The only problem is that to have a major effect, you need a fairly large team of people to carry out a coordinated action. The odds of being discovered are then pretty significant, and if you are caught planning something like this, you will be hanged. And that is the least bad thing they will do to you.

    So again, nobody should take this discussion as encouragement. if you are Iranian, you are much better at judging risk/reward of actions like this than we are.
  38. Machiavelli Member

    It's probably only useful as a means to enforce a general strike. But the decision to escalate to that level really is up to the Iranians.

    Another thing: local damage would probably be considered as hooliganism, only a total shut-down combined with a declared general strike will be viewed as an act of "the people".

    Well, yes, I thought about pylons first.

    My idea was to climb up in the middle, throw/shoot something onto the power lines and make sure to maintain as much distance as possible.

    It would be obviously easier to attack smaller lines. Even if you have to attack a lot more points.

    Inside Tehran those lines will probably be mainly underground. People interested in preparing this kind of action would need to scout out where the main power lines come in and where they go underground.

    But of course a successful action would mean no metro, no traffic lights, all businesses closed down. That's a major economic and image blow.

    If any Iranians are interested, we can try to ask some professionals in the trade for their assessment of the ideas here.
  39. sp4rrowh4wk Member

    please forgive, i cannot stay long.

    the ideas presented here have merit and are encouraging because of continued interest and support.

    i am actually an electrician. this is also an excellent metaphor for someone who works with invisible forces (some not completely understood ;)), and if job is not done right will certainly be killed.

    after green outs proved successful, many people seemed to have the same idea. substations and other important features of electrical infrastructure are guarded- some by units sympathetic to our cause. we would not endanger them by complicity, and the implication is that while harming the infrastructure, we will also harm important allies who depend on electricity for their needs too.

    the same is true for bringing down all web connectivity. thank you for your ideas. please continue to help. i must go, but God willing, will return soon.

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