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Big conspiracies: what are the odds?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by The Internet, Jan 30, 2016.

  1. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    The conclusion to that book is that Roswell flying saucer was a hovercraft made by Russia with deformed children made by dr. Mengele in an attempt to make Americans panic when they thought liens were invading, and Russia could use that opportunity to do nefarious Russian shit. So mmmm conspiracy.
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  2. The Internet Member

    The book actually has Dox on this? Or just speculation.

    I don't see why anyone would need Mengele to get deformed children.. A small percentage of babbies born don't come out right just because Nature.
  3. A.O.T.F Member


    Re: Uncensored History of Area 51 by Annie Jacobsen

    I didn't intentionally post that youtube link as being a supposed definitive version of the truth. I posted it because she has vast knowledge about area 51's / terrain layout / grid references / also, for her intricate knowledge of the nuclear testing side of the equation / U2 Bomber / stealth aircraft testing .. etc ... And when that story about the Russian ship and the Dr Mengele deformed children thing came up .. I was like, WTF!? .. One has to take into consideration that Annie Jacobsen is somewhat of a CIA Fan-girl .. So anything she says can be taken with a grain of salt.

    A mixture of truth and disinformation.

    IMHO.
  4. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Circumstantial dox
    The USA panicked when Orson Wells War of the Worlds was broadcast.
    Russia is the master of propaganda.
    The U.S. Air Force showed up in Roswell the day of the crash nd announced a unidentified craft landed in Roswell. The AF took pix, then the same day came back and announced it was a weather balloon. The residents of the town had seen small child sized bodies and a saucer.
    The USA government routinely kept spy plane and a bomb tests secret.
    Mengele did experiments on disabled children, Jews, homosexuals and Gypsies. He transplanted pieces of skull onto other people after cutting their skulls and transplanted eyes ( and other truly horrible things)
    After WWII Mengele disappeared into Germany for a few years then moved to Argentina.
    Both the Russians and the USA took German scientists for their rocket/ Manhatten Project work.
    There were two German brothers working on saucers before Germany lost the war and one if not both went missing after.
    Her conclusion is the brothers developed a saucer , the Russians purposely crashed the saucer with small astronauts made by, Mengele after the war for Russia to panic Americans.
    I think that's it. So. What think you? It's a fascinating book.
  5. The Internet Member

    I wonder why the Russians would take deformed kids and a flying saucer to the middle of nowhere USA. Wouldn't it be easier to sneak up by the coast, launch the saucer with the kids, then crash it into Miami? If terrorism was their goal a lot more people would be freaked near Miami than Roswell.

    Another problem: how does a saucer generate lift? Where are the foils? Every flying thing, like birds, planes, and helicopters, has airfoils.

    Third problem: deformed children are still recognizably human.

    Back in the 1940s the Air Force probably was testing gliders and drones and one of them crashed. The part of the Roswell story that is hard to explain seems to be the testimony of several people of small funny looking bodies in the craft. I don't know how to account for that. Perhaps the craft had a monkey in a suit in it? Or mass hysteria and false memories.

    I see the Russians as propaganda opportunists. They are like the CCHR, finding and grooming others to passionately spread distorted info to disrupt the internal peace and stability of their enemies. They like to stay invisible.
  6. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    1. Me too. Roswell isn't a big enough town to matter.
    2. there was hover technology that the brothers were working on
    3. Yes but People in Roswell reported big heads and big eyes
  7. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    I really don't know what to make of her. Her research is impeccable and the conclusions are shocking and hard to believe but every point is possible
  8. Ann O'Nymous Member


    http://www.plosone.org/annotation/listThread.action?root=88124
    The silo/hut point seems quite convincing. There are several comments of this type on the site.

    I would love to see the model applied to the PRISM case. AFAIR, NSA said that they will not let people access the whole database anymore (thus creating silos/huts).
  9. The Internet Member

    I take it "silos" are groups within some grand conspiracy aware of only a small portion of the project. That certainly would reduce the number of people in on the conspiracy. But I don't get the moon landing hoax application. Because the hoax would only involve a few people faking movies in a sound stage. So why on earth would the hoaxer create a bunch of silos involving 400,000 people?
  10. The Internet Member

    Maybe not so impeccable.
  11. The Internet Member

    Here's another source taking apart the claims in Jacobsen's book:
    http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a6768/what-really-happened-in-area-51-6200562/
    tl;dr: Jacobsen's own sources denounced her. That is a bad look.
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  12. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    First paragraph- ok. Those are the people that knew.
    Second paragraph- Mengele was beyond evil. You could read The Nazi Doctors but what he did was so foul I can't wish that one on anyone who didn't have to read it. He was capable both mentally and physically and had the knowledge base to do what was claimed, irrespective of stories of potatoes.
    As to the nuclear tests described in Area 51 - there were over a thousand if she screwed up the timing of a couple of them it could be compression of the data ie artistic license. Picking out the couple out of order makes one wonder about the bulk of the story.
    The DOEs last claim- or really now. More likely it was the dirty bomb menace then testing what would happen if the bomb failed to detonate. They already knew part of that answer because they had lost A bombs a couple of times already- the first time in Spain.
    I'm loving this discussion. You should read it because you can't get the whole history from the bad reviews.
  13. The Internet Member

    If Jacobsen's story is true, then there is nothing uniquely evil about Mengele. Cuz all the people involved in some plan to disfigure children for the sake of a stupid hoax would have to be just as depraved.

    Russian surgeons in 1947 were probably good at sewing up people disfigured by warfare. Thus I don't see why the KGB would need Mengele's surgical skills necessarily.

    I don't think tissue transplants worked in 1947, due to no immunosuppressives.

    A plan involving the USSR, Nazis, Mengele, and a flying saucer is so improbable that the evidential bar needs to be set pretty high. So far the only evidence for this plan is an 80 something year-old former contractor for Area 51. On the other side are a few hundred retirees of similar age who worked at Area 51 saying the saucer guy is talking crazy stuff. Those guys don't have a duty to stay silent now that their work is no longer classified. They won't be around much longer and they want their story to be told. That seems to be why they are so disappointed in Jacobsen.

    Here's an article that says Jacobsen's story reminds him of something in Astounding Science Fiction:
    http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1852/1
    For me the deal breaker is all Jacobsen's sources turning on her save one guy who won't go on the record. A reporter can't know more than her sources. And I had the same thought as one of the reviewers: why didn't Jacobsen try to corroborate crazy guy's wild story? Isn't corroboration of inflammatory, shocking, or controversial material prior to print journalism 101?

    Watch the author doubling down: http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/questioning-area-51s-author-13699901
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  14. Malory Member

    It's easy to mould a head into a different shape if you start off with a newborn because you can bind the head and force the soft skull to grow into certain shapes.. Get a baby with dwarfism since their heads will be proportionally larger an you've the makings of a little alien. A bit of surgery could change the shape and size of the eyes.
  15. Random guy Member


    Why on earth would you man your super secret spy aircraft with mangled children, and if you needed mangled children, why on earth go to the trouble of having an insane old German mangle them for you, when there's plenty already mangled by hunger, accidents and the bloodiest war in human history?

    It's hardly a conspiracy, it's rambling.

    If I've understood the model correctly, we'd need something that we now know actually happened, was attempted covered up and was later revealed. The mangled children story misses on all counts.
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  16. Random guy Member

    The US/Swedish/Norwegian Operation Claw seems to be a decent example of a conspiracy, where the US didn't trust their British allies to secure vital German code-books and personnel from a Norwegian prison camp in May, 1940. With the help of the Swedish intelligence and some of their Norwegian resistance fighter allies, they raided the Norwegian camp about a month before the Brits got off their ass to do the same.

    Had it been known, it would seriously hamper the US/UK relations (the war was still ongoing) and the Swedes like to pretend they're neutral. I guess the whole operation involved some 50 people, and the secrets were leaked less than a year later. With the possible exception of one of the Norwegian contacts possibly being bumped off in Stockholm, the case is now well known.
  17. fishypants Moderator

  18. Disambiguation Global Moderator

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  19. Possible != plausible
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  20. The Internet Member

    I do not see any links to PubMed so your argument is invalid.
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  21. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    This thread is about if conspiracies can exists given the number of people involved and the data available. Correct me if I'm wrong OP.
    It is not about specific conspiracies and proof thereof. Some may consider this a fine distinction but please stay on topic.
    Do y'all want this discussion to be removed to the Conspiracy thread?
  22. Random guy Member

    With the danger of incurring Disambiguation's wrath:

    Yes, if there were a way to consistently induce young children into somnambulist trance and induce hyperamnesia, that would be the the best way to keep a secret under wraps permanently.

    There are just a few hitches with that plan. First, the people involved with any sort of conspiracy worth keeping secret typically aren't children under the age of five. They are typically adults, who we know must be willing to submit to hypnosis, and even then there's no guarantee it will stick.

    Secondly, even in children under 5, hypnotism isn't entirely reliable even if we accept the article's conclusion that indoctrinating young children is easier. That's actually the whole point of the first article. If we for the sake of the argument accept it as fact that young girls are more easily indoctrinated, it must mean that a number of children (typically boys according to the article) aren't easily hypnotized. If they were, there would be no born-in scientologists breaking the bonds and escaping.

    As long as hypnosis isn't a reliable way to induce amnesia or compliance, the whole basis for your assertion falls apart.

    If hypnotism was the reliable and effective tool you claim, the conspiracies used in the article (as well as Watergate and Operation Claw) would never have come to light in the first place, and the rticle would have looked very different.
  23. The Internet Member

    PubMed is where human beings place all their published, peer reviewed scientific articles relevant to medicine, which would include hypnosis. There are a lot of crappy studies included there along with good studies. So being published is a necessary but not a sufficient test of legitimacy.

    If your evidence is not at PubMed, then you do not have peer reviewed scientific evidence.

    1964 is like the dark ages of psychology. People know tons more about memory now than they did then.
  24. Random guy Member


    As one who's actually published stuff peer-reviewed I can tell you you are way off here. Peer reviewing is exactly what it sounds like, a few people in the same profession look over you stuff to point out where you have bugged up. It has nothing do do with CIA. If whatever you want to publish can't survive under peer-review, chances are you're sprouting unsubstantiable opinions.

    Imagine the texts you posted being passed through peer-review by professionals with modern knowledge.
  25. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Ok, new thread then.
    The discussion about conspiracy/ size of/groups in/ how long they last is what this thread started with.
  26. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory
    https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/01/160126162330.htm
    "Physicists decided to test whether some science-related conspiracies alleged to exist were in fact tenable. The answer -- they'd all have given themselves away in less than four years."
  27. Disambiguation Global Moderator

  28. Ann O'Nymous Member

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  29. meep meep Member

  30. Ann O'Nymous Member

  31. meep meep Member

    I'll bet that's true.
  32. The Internet Member

    If you aren't drunk like me, you can estimate the number of people involved in Op Gladio for a given country and then compare the predicted number of years of secrecy to the actual number of years of secrecy, to see how well the model holds up.
  33. DeathHamster Member

  34. Anthro Member

    Hey bitch quit the spam

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