Big conspiracies: what are the odds?

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by The Internet, Jan 30, 2016.

  1. The Internet Member

    Pretty cool paper at PLOS:

    The author generates a predictive model regarding the probability that a large conspiracy will be exposed based upon info from three known conspiracies:
    Then he uses the model to examine four popular conspiracy theories:
    tl;dr: Kill your co-conspirators before it is too late.

    Attached Files:

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  2. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Confused. Is "Failure probability" the time it takes to disprove a conspiracy, or is he looking at the time a true conspiracy could remain secret depending on how many people involved?
  3. The Internet Member

    The second thing you said: how long until somebody within the conspiracy says or does something to reveal the conspiracy to outsiders.

    The author leaves out the possibility that outsiders might work to uncover the conspiracy --could happen but he doesn't add that in. Probably because the math is too weird.
  4. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Ok. It's the "it's not a secret if three people know" theory. You can't have a huge government conspiracy because people blab.
  5. You are so blind and unable to use critical thinking. It's sad to see really.
    Hold on to your math, your pseudoscience and your faith in a corrupted system.
    If it makes you sleep better at night, go ahead. Some of us actually know what's going on, some of us have experience instead of false beliefs. It's easy to be a follower.

    I leave you here with an funny example of the "real" moon footage:
    Amazing fireworks right? Who stayed behind to film that?
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  6. A.O.T.F Member

    I have always been fascinated by that particular clip. Notice how there is a very definite "camera zoom pull back" before the tilt upwards. Way to smooth of an action to be controlled remotely. Seemingly, not an ounce of camera movement from the very short but very powerful explosive jet wash.

    Wait for it ... :D
  7. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    You are loony
  8. A.O.T.F Member

    LOL :p
  9. A.O.T.F Member

    Unless that person can be "gotten to" ... To be subjugated and discredited / blackmailed / murdered / killed in mysterious circumstances / totally disappears from the face of the earth.
  10. No no no, anything suspicious is just an accident of random things in life.
    Oh look! X-Files is back! :p
  11. The Internet Member

    You understand the author used three real conspiracies where that did not happen as his data points, right?

    If you know of some conspiracy like those three where someone intent on blowing the whistle was murdered, maybe we can write the author and he can add that to some future paper.

    I think the best way to run a conspiracy is to kill your co-conspirators before they blab. But if you have many thousands of co-conspirators, that is not easy. Killing one might make some of the others even more likely to blab.
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  12. A.O.T.F Member

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - Prohibition - FBI poisoned liquor stores during Prohibition, using formaldehyde, ammonia, and even arsenic and kerosene.

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - Gulf of Tonkin incident - CIA Initiated bullshit

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - Operation Mockingbird

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - FBI - COINTELPRO

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - Scientology - Scientologists Planned to Have Paulette Cooper Committed

    Conspiracy theory proven as fact - The U. S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Planned to Terrorize the U. S. Populace - Operation Northwoods

    9/11 Was an inside job


  13. How about a nice big cup of shut the fuck up.
  14. A.O.T.F Member

  15. The Internet Member

    Derp, I know there are conspiracies. The question is, how long can they be kept a secret?
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  16. A.O.T.F Member

    Changing the present political dynamic - Democrats and Republicans .. Voting them both out of existence
    Re gaining control of the state Senate.
    Re gaining control of the US Supreme Court
    Regaining control of The National Archives and Records - sealed files.

  17. The Internet Member

    "Voting out" means "voting for." So who should we vote for?
  18. Donald Trump Member

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  19. The Internet Member

    Noo, Donald, "the Derail" Trump, dis my thread!
  20. A.O.T.F Member

    Lawrence Lessig would have made a fucking phenomenal difference to the US political landscape. But alas, we lost a truly great man there. All the wrong people are in power. And all the really intelligent people who are more than capable of doing those jobs, do not want a fucking bar of it. So we're inevitably stuck in this endless cycle of political bullshit. Perpetually rolled out by psychopathic sycophantic fucktards and simpletons.
    • Like Like x 1
  21. "WE" lost a truly great man there?

    You're an American now?
  22. A.O.T.F Member

    Some things you'll never know.
  23. White Tara Global Moderator

    I am Australian, and we as members of the world are concerned about all sorts of fucked up USA phenomena. You do grasp that fact dont ya? Doesnt matter where in the fuck AOTF hails from, he as with other citizens of the world is allowed to speak as such. Stop being such a retardedly literal twat and cut out the personal agenda derailing for that matter.
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  24. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Back on point:
    There is no way that large numbers of people could be kept silent with threats- someone with terminal cancer will tell the truth. So unless it's a conspiracy of people who believe in silence as a rule- like the top echelon of the military/ CIA, I can't see a conspiracy lasting. The no holocaust theory as an example. How many old Jewish people would get tattoos and insist on the murder of thousands of Jews as part of a conspiracy? How many German army guards whould have to insist they were part of mass murder if it wasn't true?
    I have met old Jewish ladies with tattoos and have met professors with tattoos. They weren't liars.
    How many non- Jewish people in the concentration camps would have to lie? People testifying to the concentration camps number in the thousands. No conspiracy possible.
    Area 51- now there is something I think is a conspiracy- of military and defense contractors who were kept out of the loop as much as possible with "need to know" . Very few people there had the whole story.
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  25. The Internet Member

    They do testing of spy planes there, right? Or you mean they are hiding a ufo there. I'm not sure which you mean.

    I doubt the claims about an alien ship, due to lots of stuff. Like the difficulty of traveling light years.
  26. Random guy Member

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  27. The Internet Member

  28. A.O.T.F Member

    I'm not trying to debunk anything TI. As I said, that particular clip has always fascinated me.
  29. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    There is a meticulous history of Area 51 out now. I threw it at a wall several times because we did such horrible shit to ourselves. Like over 1000 nuclear bombs we dropped on our own country during 'safety tests'. It does get into Roswell story were the whole town said they saw small bodies in a flying saucer craft. The conclusions are pretty weird but it is a description of a big conspiracy re- spy planes and radiation. At one point a pilot wore a gorilla mask to fool other pilots.
  30. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    My point, tortured as it may be, is that there have been more or less successful conspiracies involving people who kept secrets professionally.
  31. The Internet Member

    Until the book came out. So I dunno how many years, maybe 30?
  32. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    From the late 40s so 70 years
  33. The Internet Member

    You mentioned a lot of stuff --bomb testing, nuclear fallout, spy plane testing. Pretty sure people knew about that stuff a long time ago.

    Which part was the super secret bit that came out just recently?
  34. Disambiguation Global Moderator

    Mostly the documentation for everything. There are a few situations where the documents are missing. The conclusions were jaw dropping tho. If you read it and we can discuss. I think she's wrong but it's possible.
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  35. A.O.T.F Member

  36. The Internet Member

    We've know about Area 51 as a military base testing secret aircraft for a long time. People have been going to the fence or gate of that place for decades. It's a tourist stop, just not a very good one. From your link:
  37. A.O.T.F Member

    Uncensored History of Area 51 by Annie Jacobsen


  38. DeathHamster Member

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  39. Disambiguation Global Moderator

  40. The Internet Member

    To be relevant to my OP, we need to know the time between the conspiracy starting to when someone involved leaks about it and an estimation of the number of people involved. Then we can see how well the predictive model holds up.
    Same point.

    Also, I'm not sure Area 51 = top secret military base for testing spy planes is a conspiracy. Because a conspiracy, to be a crime, should be hiding some sort of criminal behavior.

    I suppose the idea that Area 51 = place to hide and test alien technology is a conspiracy. Because contact with aliens would be so important for humans to know about that hiding that info seems a violation of some kind of basic human right to know what the fuck is going on. But so far nobody has leaked any dox about aliens that holds up to scrutiny. So we can't apply the model to that one.

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