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2015 will be Scientology's "Year of the Whale"

Discussion in 'Scientology and Anonymous' started by RolandRB, Dec 19, 2014.

  1. RolandRB Member

    ... and so will 2016.

    The earliest they could roll out GAT 3 to get everyone to redo their Bridge and get a decent flow of moolah out of the chumps is 2017. That leaves them far short of the regular income to run their Church on a day-to-day basis, which I estimate to be $100m per year (includes paying lawyers). I think actual fixed donations income for training, auditing and materials will settle down to just a quarter of their running costs by mid 2015 so 2015 and 2016 will be "The Year of the Whale" in the Church. The whales will have to give a lot to keep the Church running those two years until income can pick up again in 2017.

    I predict that early next year there are already arrangements in place for a whale to beach itself to thunderous applause. A whale who gives all their money to the Church and becomes a Sea Org member. Then that ex-whale Sea Org member will solicit really large donations from the other whales and those whales will give much more than before, faced with that major sacrifice. If they did that then whale income would easily double and will tide them over until 2017 in time for GAT 3.
  2. anon8109 Member

    Rich people didn't get that way by giving away all their money and Miscavige knows it. He can pressure them up to a point beyond which they will just walk away rather than give more.
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  3. Random guy Member

    Mike Rinder have posted quite a bit of stats over at his blog. It should be possible to get a reasonable estimate of the services income from that. The donations is another thing though.
  4. DeathHamster Member

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  5. I wouldn't take what Rinderburn is saying as any authoritative overview at all. He's only listing out the stats he's getting from leaked cult promo, which is nowhere near their full list of stats. As a former senior cult official, he definitely knows that. So he knows exactly what he's doing - misrepresenting what information he has instead of giving the full facts.

    What would be a better - though still incomplete - barometer would be the list of completions that is put into he back of the Flag magazine. But I haven't seen anything like that leaked anywhere in a long time.

    Never trusted Rinderburn and this is even more of a reason why he shouldn't be trusted. Don't know why, but he has some reason behind giving a fake picture rather than the full truth.
    Uriaheap
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  6. Roland is just yanking our chains.
  7. Berserker101a Member

    Fuck the COS! Bastards! Spread the word about their scam! Finish this! The COS is dying. If we can spread the word that COS is a giant scam, we can end this once and for all!
  8. What was their net worth in 1986?

    1996?

    What's their net worth now?
  9. I've got it covered!!!!!

    [IMG]
  10. Yes, fuck the cult! But lurk moar and see what's been done for 4 years and longer. Nice on coming to the game but you're a little late. We need to do a lot more than "spreading the word that COS is a giant scam" to take them out.
  11. "Take them out"

    You watch too many John Wayne movies.
  12. RolandRB Member

    I am assuming that a lot of the "completions" are recompletions done at a lesser cost than the original completions. For example, somebody reported on Mike's blog that they knew people who were Cleared for the fifth time.

    Stats for Superpower, although low, will realistically settle lower because there was a backlog of people who pre-paid for it and so feel obliged to finally get there and do it. Once they are through that backlog then I imagine the completions rate would be one a week, or thereabouts, as nobody wants to spend money on running around a pole and feeling a greasiness table.

    All the signals have been in place a long time to suggest that the Church exists day-to-pay paid for by donos (and I don't mean the "fixed donations" they charge for auditing and training). I mean mostly IAS donos and donos for other projects that mostly get rerouted.

    What was a very big indicator for me was the IAS membership prices. This used to not cost a lot for a lifetime membership. I still have my card somewhere, I think. And another big indicator was the regging of Org staff and Sea Orgers. This just did not happen when I was a member. This happened before the IAS price increases. Regging staff is a sign of desperation, not greed, to me. So I think they exist day to day largely on donos and that this has been going on since about 1995.

    If this is true, and I am sure that it is, the only thing that is going to get them through 2015 and 2016 is whale donations and they will need double the yield per whale per year compared to what they are currently getting. Listen out for speeches at whale-schooling events from Herr Dwarfenführer suggesting that whales should donate more because that is more important than having status or money. These will be coming, otherwise the Church will not survive.
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  13. Not at lesser cost.
  14. RolandRB Member

    Then it is odd that I am the only British citizen listed on RFW.
  15. RolandRB Member

    This can of hot cherry blossom fell on top of my head and no matter how I try to shampoo it out, the color just stays in my hair!
    • Like Like x 1
  16. Get off it Roland. You're a chain yanker from way back.
  17. RolandRB Member

    Nice to see the OSA minions looking after their lifeline of whale donations. :)
    • Like Like x 1
  18. Bip

    That's right Roland, everyone who points out that you, for decades, have done recreational trolling is working for OSA. ;)
  19. With the 1993 tax deal in the USA - its main base of operation - donations to Scientology became tax deductible.

    Essentially, the US government (and the US taxpayer) is funding Scientology.

    The time for Scientology to disappear was the 1980s.

    Now it's here to stay, and for a long time.

    Dopey predictions about its demise, or cowboy macho talk about wiping it off the face of the Earth, do nothing.

    Try GETTING REAL, and work from there.

    Then you have a chance of being effective.
  20. Ohai, I have analyzed nearly 700 ex-members now for entry and exit years and recently looked at the data of new members 2000-2014. There were some changes and currently it looks like the rate of new members dropped to zero, zip, nada within the last 5-10 years. Due to the exit rates, Scientology is not bleeding out slowly - it's more like you pulled out the aorta and cut it.
    Therefore, this cult is in fact to stay - but not where you think.



  21. Fuck off and leave Roland alone you cnut.
  22. 2015 will be Scientology's "Year of the Whale"
    2015 will be Scientology's ''Year of the Snail'' for new recruits.
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  23. Sekee Member

    You say that like its a bad thing.
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  24. RolandRB Member

    When I was still a member I heard that the Church worldwide makes a profit when on average the Orgs are 2/3rds full of paying public. That has not been the situation on a steady basis since about 1990. Therefore they must be making a loss and that shortfall in money has to come from somewhere to keep the show on the road. That shortfall must be made up of donos.
  25. What do ex -$cientologists think of Muslims?

    It appears to be a bigger worldwide cult of zombies.

    Postulate them away.
    twinkes
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  26. So what is the future of a mind control cult with a billion plus in assets that pays no taxes and uses slave labor and has the protection of being a "religion"?
  27. RolandRB Member

    I would want to see proof of that "billion plus in assets" being in the bank somewhere. Just because the IAS collected a billion plus doesn't mean it is still there. My estimate is that it costs $100m per year to run the cult with all its buildings, enterprises, uniforms, housing, lawyers and beans and rice. Twelve years of that will have cost $1,2b and that will have accounted for the IAS total.

    The whale donations are what is running the Church right now on a day-to-day basis. All down the drain. No expansion. Keep giving more you fucking whales or see your Church die!
  28. You're right Roland, Scientology will be gone within a year. Now have a cookie and take a nap.
  29. Bob, myself and millions of other Scientologists will assure that Scientology clears the planet.

    [IMG]
  30. It's not going to clear anything, but it will continue to exist as a small nasty cult that has a lot of money.
  31. RolandRB Member

    I really don't think it has got a lot of money. I would want to see proof of it. I think the IAS money was raided to make up for the shortage in auditing and training income and that the IAS price increases and the money collected from it is all going into the day-to-day running of the Church with only a small proportion of it spent on expansion to create the illusion of expansion.

    For comparison purposes, here are the accounts of the Salvation Army operating just in the UK:

    http://apps.charitycommission.gov.u...steredCharityNumber=214779&SubsidiaryNumber=0

    Now compare with the Church of Scientology worldwide. Let us assume for a rough calculation purpose that its 2,778 employees and 10,000 volunteers are on a par with 7000 Sea Org staff worldwide and add to that the Org staff. Sea Org and staff will get paid less but Sea Org are housed, uniformed, fed, transported around. The Church will be spending more on legal fees due to its abuses. I am sure that the Salvation Army has a team of lawyers as well though then are spending less. I think they are roughly equivalent. Spending that year was £176,275,000 which currently equates to $273,808,000. Most of the Salvation Army activity was charityble spending and we know the Church does not do much of that but they purchase new Orgs, build new buildings, buy state-of-the-art printing machines etc.. I cannot see the running costs of the Church being less than $100m per year. They keep 7000 staff housed, fed, clothed, etc. They buy buildings for their staff and build new ones. They give them a small amount of pocket money. I think that would cost them $30 per day at the low end of the estimate. Add to that their organisational and legal costs and I think $40 per day per Sea Org member is the sort of expenditure that have. And that comes to $100m per year. They are getting nothing like that in terms of average steady-state earnings from processing, training and materials. Sometimes the income flow is good. At other times bad. I would estimate an averaged steady-state income for this as $35m per year and dropping each year. So to make up the money gap they have to be using money from elsewhere. That will mainly be the IAS. So I think the IAS has hardly any money left and all these donations for expansion are mainly being used on the day-to-day running of the Church with only a proportion used for visible expansion to attract more money for "expansion" which will be frittered away on the day-to-day running costs.

    In short, I don't think they have much money, they gave up on expansion in about 1995, and they are existing mainly of whale donations who think they are creating expansion where such an expansion is impossible and the Church has no intention of going down that path.
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  32. RolandRB Member

    Here is another set of accounts for a Buddhist monastery in the UK. They had to move out due to the running costs being too high at 286k GBP per year which at current exchange rate equals $443k per year. It can house 40 monks. That's $30 per day per monk. Of course, if it were Sea Org, there would be more than 40 living there, but then their costs would be a lot higher for food, clothing, transport, security camera, security fencing and extra wear on the property. That is why I think my estimate of $30 per day per Sea Orger is a good estimate and I have added a $10 a day surcharge for their organisational and legal costs (plus DwarfBoy toys). So I have a degree of confidence in my $40 per day per Sea Orger figure.

    http://apps.charitycommission.gov.u...steredCharityNumber=245415&SubsidiaryNumber=0

    As for steady-state income for auditing and training where the bumps due to "tech breakthroughs" have been smoothed out then maybe my estimate of $35m per year is too low. But from what I gather, these Ideal Orgs are nearly empty of paying Scn public so I think it is a realistic estimate of normal income.
  33. Where do you get the figure of 7000 staff?

    What do you think all Scn's buildings and properties are worth, combined total amount?
  34. Sekee Member


    In the current state of disrepair? Or after the fire?
  35. RolandRB Member

    I am interested in income and expenditure, not net worth of assets. What I am proposing is that their income for auditing and training only comes to maybe a third of the running costs of the Church and that that proportion will decrease in the future and that the real "income" they use for the day-to-day running of the Church is from IAS donations and similar donations for other projects that get rerouted.

    7000 Sea Org staff as a number has been bandied about a few times.
  36. TrevAnon Member

  37. RolandRB Member

  38. RolandRB Member

    Now I found something. It is the published expenses of the Flag Service Organisation for various years. These expenses would have kept up with inflation at least. Rather more because of the extra buildings they now have to maintain.

    http://www.xenu-directory.net/documents/corporate/990s.php?ntt=238#part1

    Total expenses for 1992 were stated as $75,964,117. It will be a lot higher in 2014. $100m at least. This is just the FSO. There are only 1000 Sea Org staff there, I think. The cost worldwide of supporting 7000 Sea Org members must therefore be a lot larger. And for keeping the Ideal Orgs maintained. Assuming we can trust their 1992 figure then their total expenditure worldwide must be in excess of $300m a year.

    As for their income from auditing, training and training materials, with no new members coming in and spending money and with the current membership very unwilling to redo their entire Bridge and training yet again, and with reports that most did not even bother finishing The Basic when they were released, their income must be low. I gues at $35m per year and reducing down to $25m per year until GAT 3 kicks in in 2017 or whenever. And even that would be too early and fairly pointless if people refuse to do GAT 2 as seems to be the case. So, I can only conclude that they are running from day-to-day mainly using donations given by the whales thinking it was for expansion.

    The cult is in deep shit, financially, and things are getting worse. The whales need to be more generous in 2015 and 2016 if they want their precious cult to survive. Donations from the ordinary chumps are bound to dry up -- they just don't have any money left. Half of all donations would currently come from the whales so that means the whales need to give in increasing amounts up to about double by the end of 2016 and to maintain that level plus inflation.

    "a substantial contribution is an everlasting gesture and far more important than material wealth or social status."
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  39. Quentinanon Member

    Waiting for the whales to demand shares of common stock in the corporation.
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